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// Model Tracker

How's the model actually doing?

Every prediction is logged before kickoff and scored against the real result once it's played — this is that record, not a backtest.

Accuracy50%vs. 71% always picking the favourite
Resolved18 / 380fixtures scored so far
Avg log loss1.034lower is better
Avg Brier score0.206lower is better

// Cumulative accuracy this season

0%25%50%75%100%
Model, cumulativeAlways pick the favourite (71%)

// Calibration

00252550507575100100perfect calibrationpredicted confidence %actual accuracy %

// Confidence spread

34%–40%
40%–50%
50%–60%
60%–70%
70%–80%
80%–90%
90%–100%

How confident the model is across every tracked fixture (not just resolved ones).

// Who the model favours

71%
29%
Home favourite (269)Draw favourite (0)Away favourite (111)

// Recent results

LeedsvBrentford
1-1called 1.0-1.0
Sun 30 Aug
ChelseavBrighton
4-3called 1.0-1.0
Sun 30 Aug
SunderlandvFulham
1-0called 1.0-1.0
Sun 30 Aug
CoventryvHull
0-1called 1.0-1.0
Sat 29 Aug
LiverpoolvNott'm Forest
2-2called 1.0-1.0
Sat 29 Aug
BournemouthvEverton
1-1called 1.0-1.0
Sat 29 Aug
TottenhamvNewcastle
0-2called 1.0-1.0
Sat 29 Aug
Crystal PalacevMan City
1-4called 1.0-1.0
Fri 28 Aug
FulhamvChelsea
2-3called 1.0-1.0
Mon 24 Aug
Man CityvBournemouth
2-1called 2.0-1.0
Sun 23 Aug
BrightonvAston Villa
4-0called 1.0-1.0
Sun 23 Aug
NewcastlevLiverpool
2-2called 1.0-1.0
Sun 23 Aug
IpswichvSunderland
2-1called 1.0-1.0
Sat 22 Aug
HullvMan United
2-0called 0.0-2.0
Sat 22 Aug
Nott'm ForestvLeeds
0-1called 1.0-1.0
Sat 22 Aug
EvertonvCrystal Palace
2-0called 1.0-1.0
Sat 22 Aug
BrentfordvTottenham
3-0called 1.0-1.0
Sat 22 Aug
ArsenalvCoventry
3-0called 2.0-0.0
Fri 21 Aug