// Matchday Predictions

Premier League Match Predictor

A Poisson-regression model weighing Elo ratings, form, squad value, and live team news against the bookies' own odds. Retrained daily on the latest results — walk-forward tested at ~53% accuracy on its own, ~55% blended with market odds.

// See how it's actually doing this season →
Grey = draw· each side's bar is its own club colour

// Gameweek 2

Fri 28 Aug · 20:00✓ Correct
📍 Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace
1–4called 1–1
Man City
19%
24%
56%
Sat 29 Aug · 12:30✗ Incorrect
📍 Anfield
Liverpool
2–2called 1–1
Nott'm Forest
62%
21%
17%
Sat 29 Aug · 15:00✗ Incorrect
📍 Vitality Stadium
Bournemouth
1–1called 1–1
Everton
47%
27%
26%
Sat 29 Aug · 15:00✗ Incorrect
📍 Coventry Building Society Arena
Coventry
0–1called 1–1
Hull
50%
27%
23%
Sat 29 Aug · 17:30✗ Incorrect
📍 Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Tottenham
0–2called 1–1
Newcastle
42%
25%
33%
Sun 30 Aug · 14:00✓ Correct
📍 Stadium of Light
Sunderland
1–0called 1–1
Fulham
40%
29%
31%
Sun 30 Aug · 14:00✓ Correct
📍 Stamford Bridge
Chelsea
4–3called 1–1
Brighton
52%
24%
24%
Sun 30 Aug · 14:00✗ Incorrect
📍 Elland Road
Leeds
1–1called 1–1
Brentford
37%
28%
35%

Most likely scorelines

2–0
11%
1–0
11%
2–1
10%
1–1
9%
3–0
8%

Why we think this

  • 🔥The biggest factor: Man United are in noticeably better recent form (last 5: Man United 1.8-1.2, Ipswich 1.0-1.8).
  • 💰Also, Man United's squad cost a lot more to assemble (Man United £775m vs Ipswich £229m).
  • 📊And: Man United carry the stronger rating (1556 vs 1442), built from actual results.
  • 💷Blended with live bookmaker odds for this fixture.

Most likely scorelines

1–1
11%
1–2
9%
0–1
9%
0–2
7%
2–1
7%

Why we think this

  • 🔥The biggest factor: Arsenal are in noticeably better recent form (last 5: Aston Villa 1.8-2.2, Arsenal 2.0-0.2).
  • 📊Also, Arsenal carry the stronger rating (1540 vs 1624), built from actual results.
  • 💰And: Arsenal's squad cost a lot more to assemble (Aston Villa £614m vs Arsenal £1.33bn).
  • 💷Blended with live bookmaker odds for this fixture.