Grey = draw· each side's bar is its own club colour
// Gameweek 7
Most likely scorelines
1–1
12%
0–1
9%
1–2
9%
1–0
8%
2–1
8%
Why we think this
- 💰The biggest factor: Chelsea's squad cost a lot more to assemble (Everton £459m vs Chelsea £1.15bn).
- 🩹Everton: Vitalii Mykolenko (Leg injury - 75% chance of playing) — estimated ~2% reduction to expected goals (auto-sourced from live availability data, not learned from historical data).
- 📰Everton: Recent coverage reads negative — "'Two points dropped' - Everton fan disappointed after Hull"
- 🤖Model-only — bookmaker odds aren't published for this fixture yet.
Most likely scorelines
1–1
12%
1–0
11%
2–1
10%
2–0
9%
0–1
7%
Why we think this
- 💰The biggest factor: Fulham's squad cost a lot more to assemble (Fulham £376m vs Hull £106m).
- 🔥But pulling the other way: Hull are in noticeably better recent form (last 5: Fulham 0.8-1.4, Hull 1.2-1.2). Worth noting these two signals disagree.
- 🤖Model-only — bookmaker odds aren't published for this fixture yet.
Most likely scorelines
1–1
12%
1–0
9%
0–1
9%
2–1
8%
1–2
8%
Why we think this
- 💰The biggest factor: Liverpool's squad cost a lot more to assemble (Brentford £504m vs Liverpool £981m).
- 🔥But pulling the other way: Brentford are in noticeably better recent form (last 5: Brentford 1.8-1.2, Liverpool 1.0-1.0). Worth noting these two signals disagree.
- 🩹Brentford: Kevin Schade (Shoulder injury - 75% chance of playing) — estimated ~6% reduction to expected goals (auto-sourced from live availability data, not learned from historical data).
- 📰Liverpool: Recent coverage reads negative — "'I didn't like the refereeing' - Iraola unhappy with Gravenberch red"
- 🤖Model-only — bookmaker odds aren't published for this fixture yet.
Most likely scorelines
2–0
12%
3–0
11%
1–0
9%
2–1
9%
3–1
8%
Why we think this
- 🔥The biggest factor: Man City are in noticeably better recent form (last 5: Man City 2.8-0.8, Ipswich 1.4-2.2).
- 📊Also, Man City carry the stronger rating (1646 vs 1444), built from actual results.
- 💰And: Man City's squad cost a lot more to assemble (Man City £1.39bn vs Ipswich £229m).
- 📰Man City: Recent coverage reads negative — "'I didn't like the refereeing' - Iraola unhappy with Gravenberch red"
- 🤖Model-only — bookmaker odds aren't published for this fixture yet.
Most likely scorelines
1–1
12%
2–1
9%
1–0
9%
1–2
7%
0–1
7%
Why we think this
- ⚖️Nothing here strongly separates Newcastle and Aston Villa — rating, form, and squad value are all close. Genuinely hard to call.
- 🤖Model-only — bookmaker odds aren't published for this fixture yet.
Most likely scorelines
1–1
11%
2–1
10%
1–0
10%
2–0
8%
1–2
6%
Why we think this
- 🔥The biggest factor: Brighton are in noticeably better recent form (last 5: Brighton 2.8-1.0, Crystal Palace 1.8-2.0).
- 📊Also, Brighton carry the stronger rating (1548 vs 1485), built from actual results.
- ⚡Brighton vs Crystal Palace is a genuine rivalry fixture — form and ratings matter less than usual in games like this.
- 📰Brighton: Recent coverage reads negative — "Struijk red card after VAR intervention overturned"
- 🤖Model-only — bookmaker odds aren't published for this fixture yet.
Most likely scorelines
1–1
11%
1–0
11%
2–1
10%
2–0
10%
0–1
7%
Why we think this
- 💰The biggest factor: Bournemouth's squad cost a lot more to assemble (Bournemouth £681m vs Sunderland £447m).
- 🩹Sunderland: Daniel Ballard (Hamstring injury - Unknown return date) — estimated ~11% reduction to expected goals (auto-sourced from live availability data, not learned from historical data).
- 🤖Model-only — bookmaker odds aren't published for this fixture yet.
Most likely scorelines
1–1
12%
0–1
9%
1–2
9%
1–0
8%
2–1
8%
Why we think this
- 💰The biggest factor: Man United's squad cost a lot more to assemble (Leeds £374m vs Man United £775m).
- ⚡Leeds vs Man United is a genuine rivalry fixture — form and ratings matter less than usual in games like this.
- 🤖Model-only — bookmaker odds aren't published for this fixture yet.
Most likely scorelines
1–1
11%
1–2
10%
0–1
9%
0–2
8%
2–1
7%
Why we think this
- 📊The biggest factor: Arsenal carry the stronger rating (1479 vs 1640), built from actual results.
- 🔥Also, Arsenal are in noticeably better recent form (last 5: Nott'm Forest 1.0-1.4, Arsenal 1.4-1.0).
- 💰And: Arsenal's squad cost a lot more to assemble (Nott'm Forest £639m vs Arsenal £1.33bn).
- 🤖Model-only — bookmaker odds aren't published for this fixture yet.
Most likely scorelines
1–0
11%
1–1
11%
2–0
10%
2–1
10%
3–0
6%
Why we think this
- 💰The biggest factor: Tottenham's squad cost a lot more to assemble (Tottenham £813m vs Coventry £194m).
- 📰Tottenham: Recent coverage reads positive — "'I kissed Rodrigo and said thanks' - De Zerbi 'liked' Spurs red card"
- 🤖Model-only — bookmaker odds aren't published for this fixture yet.